Intel (INTC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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• Intel expects full year 2026 adjusted free cash flow to be positive

  80% confidence

• Nova Lake expected to launch end of 2026

  80% confidence

• 34.5% is by no means an acceptable level of gross margins

  80% confidence

• Full year 2026 OpEx target of $16B

  80% confidence

• Custom ASIC revenue grew >50% in 2025, reaching >$1B annualized run rate in Q4

  80% confidence

• Expected above-seasonal growth from Q2 onward if supply improves as expected

  80% confidence

• Advanced packaging customer ramps beginning 2H 2026

  80% confidence

• We produced $3.1 billion in adjusted free cash flow in the second half of 2025 as cash from operations more than doubled half-on-half

  80% confidence

• Intel 18A yields continue to improve steadily but are still below what I want them to be

  80% confidence

• We exceeded that commitment by delivering our first 3 SKUs of Core Ultra Series 3

  80% confidence

• In terms of 14A risk production in the later part of 2027 and real production, volume production in 2028. That is similar to the same time frame as a leading foundry

  80% confidence

• The CPU central function coordinating this traffic will drive not only traditional server refresh, but new demand that grows the installed base

  80% confidence

• Supply improvements beginning Q2 2026, with each quarter improving through 2026

  80% confidence

• Q1 2026 revenue would be well above seasonal if unconstrained by supply

  80% confidence

• Intel is the only semiconductor manufacturer shipping gate-all-around transistors with backside power for revenue

  80% confidence

• 2025 PC TAM exceeded 290M units, representing 2nd straight year of growth and fastest growth since 2021

  80% confidence

• We are on a multiyear journey. It will take time and resolve

  80% confidence

• Hyperscalers' first choice is the CPU from Intel, very clear message from them

  80% confidence

• Investor Day planned for 2H 2026 at Santa Clara headquarters

  80% confidence

• ASIC TAM represents $100B opportunity

  80% confidence

• No 14A capacity CapEx spending until customers are secured

  80% confidence

• Advanced packaging opportunities will be well north of $1 billion on many of these opportunities

  80% confidence

• Expected firm customer commitments for Intel 14A in 2H 2026 through 1H 2027

  80% confidence

• Fifth consecutive quarter of revenue above our guidance

  80% confidence

• Yield improvements focus is 7-8% per month on variation, consistency, defect density

  80% confidence

• The breadth of our IP and know-how uniquely position us to capitalize on these AI-driven trends

  80% confidence

• I'm hearing a clear, consistent message. They see the progress we are making, they want Intel at the table

  80% confidence

• On Q1 supply it's just literally hand to mouth, what we can get out of the fab

  80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source