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Source document· December 25, 2025

The 2025 IPO Comeback Tour

View original at nasdaq.com
The 2025 IPO Comeback Tour In this podcast, Motley Fool analysts Emily Flippen and Sanmeet Deo and contirubtor Jason Hall break down why the IPO market took off in 2025, which new listings may look like future Rule Breakers, and what investors should be keeping an eye on for new IPOs in 2026…
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  • IPO data shows that in general, IPOs tend to fall or stay similar in presidential election years, but increase in the year after elections

    80% confidence
  • If the AI bubble bursts in 2026, the IPO market will tighten and see fewer IPOs

    80% confidence
  • AI model builders raised nearly double what the entire IPO market did while staying private

    80% confidence
  • SpaceX going public will cause institutional investors to buy it to avoid career risk

    80% confidence
  • IPOs in the first half of 2025 were up more than 75% compared to 2024

    80% confidence
  • AI-related IPOs represented 43% of total IPO proceeds raised in 2025, approximately $16.5 billion out of $38 billion

    80% confidence
  • SpaceX IPO will suck out the air in the room for smaller companies trying to go public at the same time

    80% confidence
  • SpaceX IPO at $1.5 trillion valuation for a cash-burning business makes him more worried than excited

    80% confidence
  • Many IPOs are exit strategies for existing investors rather than sources of new capital for businesses

    80% confidence
  • Bull markets beget more IPOs, and the economy has powered through despite uncertainty

    80% confidence
  • In general, he doesn't buy IPOs for about a year or two, and if he does, it's almost always a very small investment

    80% confidence
  • Figma is a top dog, first mover in AI-based collaborative design with a clear path to monetization

    80% confidence
What we know · the intelligence behind this page
Live from the substrate
What we're seeing
Q4 2026 Clinical Catalyst Season: Big-Pharma Data Flow, Regulatory Milestones, and a Thin AI-Drug Fringe
October 2026 conferences (EASD, IGCS, NACFC, HFSA) are producing a dense run of late-stage readouts from Novo Nordisk, Lilly, Roche, Bayer, Vertex and Galderma. Regulatory milestones are scheduled behind them: the ivonescimab BLA PDUFA date on 2026-11-14, FDA acceptance of Roche's vamikibart BLA, and Scholar Rock's EMA resubmission. The AI-and-finance angle is peripheral. It consists of the AI-designed drug Rentosertib and QAIAx, a speculative microcap whose trial claims (the QIII pilot, anticipated 2027-01-01, and a patent update) are forecasts and filings rather than data, so they warrant skepticism.
Our read on the data ›
Signals we're tracking
EPKINLY Regulatory-Clinical Success Cascade
High probability of expanded label indications, additional combination approvals, and competitive positioning strength in follicular lymphoma market. Predicts positive commercial uptake and potential accelerated review for related indications.
Patterns we're watching ›
Where sources disagree
ING Group
Both facts record the same metric (shares_outstanding) for ING Group at the identical observation date (2025-12-31). FACT A states 2,902,437,688 shares; FACT B states 2,902 million shares (2,902,000,000). The difference is 437,688 shares (~0.015%). This is a genuine value conflict, though the discrepancy appears to result from FACT B rounding to the nearest million while FACT A provides the precise count.
We flag conflicts openly ›
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