Blue Bird maintains $1.5B revenue and 14.7% EBITDA margin guidance for 2026 while signaling strong EV and chassis expansion

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• Commercial chassis prototypes are in testing and the product is well received by customers who have looked at it

  80% confidence

• Gross margin for Q4 was 21% or 4.1 percentage points higher than last year due to sustained operational performance and pricing overtaking inflationary costs including tariff effects

  80% confidence

• Blue Bird feels very good about the 750 guidance of EV and there is some upside potential up to 1,000 units in fiscal 2026

  80% confidence

• Blue Bird's track record and dominance in alternative powered vehicles continues with stable EV demand despite tariff pricing uncertainty and EPA funding, and the outlook in this area remains strong

  80% confidence

• Outside of the federal side, there is real demand at the state level for EV buses

  80% confidence

• Adjusted EBITDA came in at $221 million for the year or 15% of revenue, which is $38 million better compared to last year's record year

  80% confidence

• Blue Bird has approximately 100 commercial chassis in fiscal 2026 guidance, and they are not material in terms of moving from low end to high end of guidance

  80% confidence

• Pricing in the second half is expected to be pretty flat other than the announced increase, with tariffs remaining a wild card

  80% confidence

• Blue Bird beat the adjusted EBITDA quarterly guidance and delivered the best quarter ever with $68 million adjusted EBITDA margin

  80% confidence

• Free cash flow for the year was a record $153 million

  80% confidence

• Blue Bird is maintaining fiscal 2026 units and revenue midpoint guidance to 9,500 and $1.5 billion respectively, and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $220 million or 14.7% with a range of $210-230 million and 14.5%-15% margin

  80% confidence

• Blue Bird sold 9,409 buses in 2025, generating $1.48 billion in revenue, with 901 electric vehicle sales

  80% confidence

• EV backlog increased to 850 units

  80% confidence

• Year-end backlog was 3,100 units and has grown to nearly 4,000 units including 850 EVs as of the earnings call

  80% confidence

• Blue Bird expects to deliver a much higher number of EVs in the second half versus first half of fiscal 2026, similar to fiscal 2025

  80% confidence

• Blue Bird beat guidance on all metrics and delivered a record year despite headwinds from tariffs and policy uncertainty

  80% confidence

• Federal EV bus program rounds 4 and 5 are not contingent for 2026 guidance, and the EV outlook is strong and stable

  80% confidence

• The $3,500 per bus price increase is for new orders and will materialize in Q3 and Q4, and tariff risk remains a factor

  80% confidence

• The backlog is lower year-over-year but still significantly above pre-COVID levels

  80% confidence

• It is too early to tell about competitive dynamics from peers and so far no meaningful change has been seen

  80% confidence

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