Dollar Slips on Hopes for US-Iran Peace Talks to Resume
View original at nasdaq.comDollar Slips on Hopes for US-Iran Peace Talks to Resume The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday fell by -0.05%. The dollar fell from a 2.5-week high on Monday and finished lower after Axios reported that Iran has offered a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz…
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Bullion held in China's PBOC reserves rose by +160,000 ounces to 74.38 million troy ounces in March 2026, the seventeenth consecutive month the PBOC has boosted its gold reserves, supportive of gold prices.
60% confidenceLong holdings in silver ETFs fell to an 8.25-month low last Friday after rising to a 3.5-year high on December 23, representing bearish fund liquidation for silver prices.
60% confidencePrecious metals remain supported by uncertainty over US tariffs, US political turmoil, large US deficits, and government policy uncertainty, boosting demand for precious metals as a store of value.
60% confidenceSwaps are discounting a 6% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting.
60% confidenceThe FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by at least -25 bp in 2026, while the BOJ and ECB are expected to raise rates by at least +25 bp in 2026, creating a poor outlook for US dollar interest rate differentials.
60% confidencePresident Trump is discussing Iran's new Strait of Hormuz proposal with national security and foreign policy officials.
60% confidenceLong holdings in gold ETFs fell to a 4.5-month low on March 31 after climbing to a 3.5-year high on February 27, representing bearish fund liquidation for gold prices.
60% confidenceSwaps markets are discounting the odds at 0% for a +25 bp rate hike at the upcoming Tue-Wed FOMC meeting.
60% confidenceHeightened US-Iran tensions are boosting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven, with both sides blocking the Strait of Hormuz to gain leverage during an extended ceasefire.
60% confidenceMonday's +2% increase in crude oil prices is negative for the Eurozone economy and the euro, as Europe imports most of its energy needs.
60% confidenceIran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. The plan calls for extending the ceasefire so parties can work toward a permanent end, and nuclear talks would come later, only after a US blockade of the strait is lifted.
60% confidenceHigher crude oil prices increased inflation expectations, which is a hawkish factor for Fed policy and positive for the dollar.
60% confidenceJapan imports more than 90% of its energy needs, making rising crude oil prices negative for the Japanese economy and the yen.
60% confidenceThe markets are discounting a +3% chance of a 25 bp BOJ rate hike at the next meeting on Tuesday.
60% confidence