Dollar Rallies on Signs of a Resilient US Economy

What we drew from this source

The claims Via News extracted from this document. We point to the source; we don't replace it.

• Swaps markets are pricing an 80% probability of a 25 bp ECB rate hike at the next policy meeting on June 11.

  60% confidence

• The fundamentals of the US economy are sound.

  60% confidence

• Recent fund liquidation of precious metals is bearish for prices, as long holdings in gold ETFs fell to a 5-month low and silver ETF holdings fell to a 9-month low.

  60% confidence

• Markets are pricing a 76% probability of a 25 bp BOJ rate hike at the next policy meeting on June 16.

  60% confidence

• Swaps markets are pricing only a 4% probability of a 25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

  60% confidence

• Strong central bank demand for gold is supportive of gold prices, with China's PBOC making its eighteenth consecutive monthly increase in gold reserves.

  60% confidence

• Inflation is the most pressing risk to the US economy.

  60% confidence

• If inflation expectations deteriorate due to rising energy prices, the ECB will be forced to raise interest rates.

  60% confidence

• The BOJ should raise the policy interest rate at the earliest stage possible if statistical data do not show clear signs of an economic downturn.

  60% confidence

• The US and China are weighing a potential framework under which each country identifies about $30 billion in goods on which tariffs could be eased without threatening national security interests.

  60% confidence

Cited in these Via News reports

• Global Bond Selloff Accelerates as Fed Leadership Vacuum Drives Treasury Yields to Multi-Year Highs →
• Global Bond Selloff Pushes US 30-Year Yield Past 5%, Forcing Corporate Debt Repricing Worldwide →
• Global Rate Surge Outlasts Powell: Banks on Three Continents Face Higher-for-Longer Reality →
• Warsh Confirmed as Fed Chair; Markets Price 50% Hike as Global Debt Selloff Spreads →