US Job Growth Seen Moderating After Robust January

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• A 23% minimum wage hike in Colombia that was suspended by the high court in mid-February and restored by decree less than a week later has thoroughly roiled expectations and analyst estimates

  80% confidence

• The longer the job market limps along, the more consumer resilience will be put to the test

  80% confidence

• The jobless rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%

  80% confidence

• Forecasters anticipate overall annual consumer-price growth at 1.7% in February for the euro area. That would match the prior reading, which was the lowest since September 2024

  80% confidence

• The current inflation picture in the euro area is favorable overall and we are in a good position on monetary policy

  80% confidence

• We expect a 30K drop in February payrolls, a sharp deceleration from January's surprisingly strong print. The slowdown is more reflective of the cold spell in late-January and early February than a weakening in underlying hiring conditions

  80% confidence

• Weather-sensitive sectors were particularly hard hit, including construction and leisure and hospitality likely

  80% confidence

• Brazil fourth-quarter and final 2025 output results expected to again highlight the drag on Latin America's No. 1 economy from the central bank's uncompromising monetary policy

  80% confidence

• Fuel prices fell to a five-year low earlier in the month before rebounding in the closing weeks of January

  80% confidence

• Hungary's fourth-quarter growth data will offer clues on whether a pre-election upswing Prime Minister Viktor Orban is banking on has materialized

  80% confidence

• Rate cuts are expected to continue in Turkey, though possibly at a slower pace than January's 100 basis-point reduction

  80% confidence

• Official manufacturing and non-manufacturing gauges for February are both forecast to stay contractionary

  80% confidence

• Economists forecast a modest increase in receipts at US retailers other than auto dealers and gas stations

  80% confidence

• Italy's inflation number expected to show a slight uptick, to 1.1%

  80% confidence

• Indonesia's February consumer inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.34% after recording the fastest clip since 2023 a month earlier

  80% confidence

• Pricing in the overnight-indexed swaps market implying only the sliver of a chance of a back-to-back increase at the next RBA decision on March 17

  80% confidence

• Australia data expected to show that growth picked up a tad in the fourth quarter, in figures likely to sustain speculation over another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike this year after January inflation held above the bank's target

  80% confidence

• After years of scrambling to lure workers, employers dialed back hiring rapidly in 2025. The result was the weakest year for payrolls growth outside of a recession since 2003

  80% confidence

• SNB President acknowledged the possibility of negative prints while insisting such outcomes wouldn't be a problem

  80% confidence

• South Korea's consumer inflation is seen picking up a bit in February, to 2.2%, likely keeping the Bank of Korea in a holding pattern for now

  80% confidence

• China PMI statistics will probably highlight the need for more policy support after a sluggish start to the year

  80% confidence

• Auto sales slumped, based on industry figures, also likely due to weather

  80% confidence

• Economists see 2025 full year growth having downshifted to roughly 2.3% from 3.4% in 2024, which would be the lowest since 2020's -3.3% pandemic-induced slump for Brazil

  80% confidence

• US payrolls growth probably settled back in February after the strongest month of hiring in a year, returning to a more moderate and likely sustainable pace of hiring

  80% confidence

• Labor market conditions have stabilized since last fall

  80% confidence

• The CPIF measure of consumer prices targeted by the Riksbank may have dropped to 1.8% in February, its lowest since 2024

  80% confidence

• Economists project 60,000 jobs were added for the month in February

  80% confidence

• South Korea export data showed an acceleration in February, reinforcing the central bank's view that solid semiconductor demand is helping cushion the economy

  80% confidence

• Colombia's inflation likely drifted higher from January's slightly-less-than expected jump to 5.35%

  80% confidence

• Chile January GDP-proxy data likely buoyed by domestic demand, near record prices for copper and high expectations for market-friendly policies from President-elect Jose Antonio Kast

  80% confidence

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