Stocks Soar on Middle East Peace Prospects
View original at nasdaq.comStocks Soar on Middle East Peace Prospects The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed up +1.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +1.79%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.29%…
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ECB needs to stay vigilant to potential inflation risks from the Iran war, but we don't have much hard evidence of second-round effects, so it's difficult to argue that there's an obvious case to raise rates
60% confidenceThe US and Iran are negotiating over a plan to end the war, with one element under discussion being that the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium
60% confidenceHe might travel to Pakistan if a deal with Iran is clinched
60% confidenceStripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years
60% confidenceGiven higher uncertainty at the moment, June is a better moment than April to decide whether an ECB interest rate response to the Iran war is necessary
60% confidenceIran made key concessions in an ongoing negotiation to end the seven-week war
60% confidenceRisks to the price outlook are tilted to the upside, especially in the near term, while the medium-term implications will depend on the intensity and duration of the war
60% confidenceThe oil shock in the US is stronger on the inflation side than on growth, and leaving policy unchanged would still restrain inflation
60% confidenceThe US naval blockade in the strait will remain in full force until a deal is fully agreed
60% confidenceQ1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y
60% confidence