Experts Warn That Recession Risks Are Increasing. Here's What That Means for Investors

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The claims Via News extracted from this document. We point to the source; we don't replace it.

• 30% chance of a recession beginning in the next 12 months

  60% confidence

• Previous recession forecast was 25% probability

  60% confidence

• This oil crisis could rival that of the 1970s

  60% confidence

• Oil prices would need to remain elevated at $150 per barrel to trigger a U.S. recession

  60% confidence

• The oil crisis could elevate unemployment and food insecurity in some countries

  60% confidence

• Persistently high oil prices could potentially push inflation to 6% by next year

  60% confidence

• If oil prices remain only slightly above prewar levels for a few months, it could slow U.S. GDP and push inflation up by around 0.4%

  60% confidence

• The war in Iran could slow global economic growth

  60% confidence

Cited in these Via News reports

• AI Cloud ETFs Drop Up to 22% as Stagflation Locks Central Banks From Washington to Frankfurt →
• Central Banks Delay Rate Moves as 11% Oil Drop Reshapes Global Inflation Calculus →
• Hormuz Closure Sends US Gasoline Past $4/Gallon, Triggers Global Demand Collapse →
• Japan at Multi-Year Equity Highs, Germany at 6-Year Confidence Low as Energy Shock Looms →
• Powell Out May 15: Warsh Takes Fed Helm as G-7 Banks Hold Rates and Markets Price Out 2026 Cuts →
• Strait of Hormuz Disruption Drives Big Four Layoffs as Global Stagflation Risk Mounts →
• US Markets Gain on Inflation Relief as Middle East Oil Crisis Threatens Global Economy →
• Wall Street Posts Strong Q1 as IMF Warns Oil Shock Could Rival 1970s Crisis →