Forget Rate Cuts: What if the Fed Needs to Hike Rates in 2026?
View original at finance.yahoo.comForget Rate Cuts: What if the Fed Needs to Hike Rates in 2026? The Iran conflict has thrown both the U.S. economic outlook and Fed policy plans out the window…
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Small-cap earnings growth expectations are starting to improve
60% confidenceBelief in rate cuts was largely based on the notion that GDP growth was likely to slow and the labor market showed stagnant job growth
60% confidenceSeveral Fed members expressing hesitation to cut rates in light of inflation remaining stubbornly above target
60% confidenceFed Funds futures market has been pricing in rate cuts in 2026, with expectations for two rate cuts during the year
60% confidenceTariffs are paid by the U.S. importer and those higher costs often get passed on to the end consumer, making tariffs inherently inflationary
60% confidenceRate cuts are meant to support an economy that's deteriorating. If corporate earnings are already strong and in some cases accelerating, that indicates the economy really isn't in that bad of shape
60% confidenceUnited States government insists it won't withdraw from conflict until Iran surrenders
60% confidenceIf the current oil spike was due to a supply driven event, it may only be temporarily inflationary, and long-term macro fundamentals should outweigh short-term shocks
60% confidence