Makena Capital now models an 18-year fund life, with the majority of capital returning in years 16 through 18. The extended timeline reflects a structural recalibration across venture capital, where infrastructure-focused funds face longer hold periods amid valuation discipline.
Andreessen Horowitz's infrastructure team demonstrated selective deployment despite sector conviction. "We just talked ourselves out of it stupidly," said partner Martin Casado about passing on neocloud providers during peak valuations. The restraint marks a departure from prior deployment cycles, where conviction often overrode price concerns.
The rebalancing affects LP portfolio construction. Makena maintains Stripe exposure as a hedge against Visa, anticipating crypto rails could disrupt traditional payment networks. This positioning reflects how extended hold periods force allocators to model multiple outcome scenarios across decade-plus timeframes.
Fund managers recruited outside traditional investment banking backgrounds drove the discipline shift. "Martin, when he was building his team, he just didn't care what the conventional wisdom or background was," said Jamin Ball of a16z's hiring approach. Non-traditional perspectives appear to correlate with greater willingness to pass on consensus opportunities.
Consumer investing shows divergent momentum. Thomas Lee predicts MrBeast's banking venture could position itself as the dominant financial platform for Gen Z and Gen Alpha, potentially serving as a cryptocurrency entry point. The consumer optimism contrasts with infrastructure caution, suggesting distinct deployment cycles across categories.
The bifurcation creates modeling challenges for fund-of-funds allocators. Infrastructure funds requiring 18-year modeling sit alongside consumer and emerging manager funds that may see earlier liquidity. Portfolio construction now requires category-specific timeline assumptions rather than uniform exit projections.
New manager formation may accelerate in consumer and emerging categories while infrastructure deployment remains selective. The structural shift reflects market maturation, where capital abundance no longer overrides valuation discipline in established infrastructure sectors.